Now that the world economic situation has turned up many are looking for a sustainable environment to allocate investment. Yet is it really a meaningful recovery or just a meaningful temporary stimulus?
The total GDP of China $4.3T USD and the amount dispursed through loose credit policies through the first seven months of this year amounted to over $1T USD. This is equivalent to 25% of GDP lent to domestically to increase consumption.
In comparison the US GDP is close to $14T USD and the stimulus program directly related to the federal budget amounted to $1T USD (Stimulus package + Cars for Clunkers + Chrysler Bailout + GM Bailout + TARP + AIG Bailout). This is a total of only 8% of GDP.
IMHO it is obvious that China has created malinvestment and guided resources into frivilous causes in fear. Considering the size of the error, it will only be a matter of time before this causes problems in their financial system.
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1 comment:
Be careful of china.
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