Tuesday, February 23, 2010

What Euro crisis? I smell opportunity. Buy Euro debt

Headline: Fiscal deficits across Europe threaten to blow apart the Euro.

So what? Who cares.

Let's think about this. Germany is right now benefiting from low budget deficits and artificially lower currency base because they belong the Euro. Exports are recovering because Germany is one of the most competitive exporters of the European Union.

Let's look down the road... worst case, one of the PIIGS default. The euro is abandoned by the European countries and the deutsche mark (DM) is reinstated. The DM soars and exports suffer. Another recession ensues. Painful, not a killer.

More likely...the PIIGS are dragged along without "technically" defaulting. A bailout, backdoor or front door, will just continue to dilute the euro trying to regain competitiveness. The German banks will take some writedowns and move on. Is this bad? Bad for Europeans trying to retire. But not bad for the survivor PIIGS who need to export their way out of their recession.

With this said, what could be on sale during this storm?

Long Credit Suisse Subordinate Debt Notes yielding 7.90% at par ($25 Par), buy at $17/share (NYSE:CRP).

Long Deutsche Bank Subordinated Debt Notes yielding 6.35% at par ($25), buy at $13.5/share (NYSE:DUA).


Lockstep said...

Both of these banks are not showing up on any "will implode from Euro crisis" radar. So, this could be a really good play if the weaker players in the Euro zone muddle through their coming recessions and fiscal reductions.

Lockstep said...

Once again, good picks but the buying price was too defensive to execute.


Not bad