Thursday, April 22, 2010

Short the runt PIIGS

This will be a drawn out process. But we can be sure that Greece will default in some form or fashion (i.e. restructuring). In the meantime, let's enjoy the instability and make some money shorting the national champions of the most at risk PIIGS.

A few of the facts:

*There is a run on the banks going on in Greece already, official or unofficial. Over 25% of deposits have already left the domestic banks.
* Only six people in Greece claimed income higher than 1m euros in 2008 (pervasive tax evasion)
* Greece has spent over 50 of the last 200 years in default (subprime, always)
* Greece has not had fiscal discipline in the last 10 years, why will that change in a major recession?

As for the short of Portugal Telecom and the national electric company (EDFPY.PK), the performance of the telecom and energy industries are tied to the economic health of the country.

Short NBG at $3.10 entered on 4/22
Short PT at 11.00 (limit order)
Short EDFPY.PK at $37 entered on 4/22


Lockstep said...

Closed the PT short at $9.55 on Monday.

Lockstep said...

Closed EDFPY.PK short on May 12 at $34.20

Lockstep said...

Looking back, I was brave for shorting PT. They have a stake in a Brazil telecomm that is red hot, and valued at close to $7B. Selling that stake could make a major dent in their outstanding debt.

Next time I need to be a little more careful. A high priced sale of this stake could have caused a big bounce in the stock.


Excellent idea