Tuesday, October 26, 2010

QE2? Be quiet. Long the 30Y bond

End of stimulus spending and heightened expectations of quantitative easing make treasury bond prices ripe for increases. Also housing is resuming price declines, pushing money to risk adverse areas of the market.

Sell Jan 2011 TLT $93 Put for $1.2
Buy Jan 2011 TLT $91 Put for .81

Net credit of .39 with a $2 risk.


Lockstep said...
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Lockstep said...

The 30Y has been slaughtered by the recent tax cut compromise that reinforces the lack of ability of the US government close their budget gap.

But the position is still out of the money and I will continue holding. I am optimistic for a bounce within a short timeframe to allow a profitable exit from this position.

Lockstep said...

This position ended with TLT at 90.80 on Jan 20. Thus it was an 80.5% loss.


QE4 is coming.