Sunday, March 20, 2011

Japan Nuclear Risk Overdone

After performing extensive research of Japan quake, I read that the risk of any significant lasting impact beyond the local area is very low. The Japanese nuclear crisis is described in the worst case as a Level 6 disaster, but the Level 7 Chernobyl disaster led to the loss of only 31 lives (horrible, but manageable) and increased long term cancer rates.

The Japanese industrial complex is significantly undervalued right now. The nuclear risk is acknowledged, but the stimulative effective of rebuilding will bring about growth over next 6 - 18 months once the rebuilding starts.

The author is long EWJ at $10.30.


Lockstep said...

Well, the risk to Japan's economy was overdone but that does not mean it is poised for growth either.

This position will be closed at $9.17 at a 11% loss.


Great post on japan