Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Like everybody else, going short treasuries, with a untwist
It does not take a genius to assess that the QE taper may increase the yield curve. But markets do not move in a straight line, and often relapse. Thus the movement will be jerky, and pronounced. But with that said, the net effect is a high probability of a trend toward higher rates over a 12 month period. This blog believes obtaining a leveraged return on anticipating a small upward movement is the best way to gain from the "untwisting" of long term rates when the bond purchases subside. The author is long JAN 2015 $100 TLT Puts and short JAN 2015 $95 TLT Puts for a net debit of $2.4.